‍

What’s behind the rising panel costs from China

After years of falling prices, the solar pv market is shifting and here’s what NZ businesses should know.

Between 2023 and 2025, global solar panel prices fell by around 45% — a historically unprecedented drop driven by massive Chinese overproduction and intense manufacturer competition. For businesses across New Zealand, this created a golden window: solar investment had never been cheaper, and payback periods shortened dramatically.

But those low prices were exceptional, and the market is now correcting. In practical terms, panel prices have already risen approximately 15% since the start of 2026. A further 9% increase is anticipated from 1st April, when China's remaining export rebates are formally removed. For businesses considering solar, now is the time to be making the most of lower panel pricing. 

What this means for kiwi businesses

Higher panel costs will mean a materially higher upfront investment. Historically, the era of "cheap panels" encouraged a race to the bottom in quality in China — with some installers prioritising low price-per-watt over long-term performance. As the market normalises, businesses now have both more reason and more responsibility to choose wisely.

A poorly performing system doesn't just underdeliver on energy — it underdelivers on ROI for the entire asset life. For a commercial installation expected to run 25+ years, a marginal saving on panel cost today can easily be eclipsed by degradation losses, warranty disputes, or manufacturer insolvency down the track.

Quality matters: Why the longevity of panels is key

In a rising-price environment, the temptation may be to source the cheapest available panels to offset cost increases but this is rather a false economy. The true cost of a solar investment is measured over decades, not months - and in that context, panel quality and manufacturer stability are everything.

This is where brands, like LONGi Solar make sense. As the world's largest solar technology company by volume of shipments, LONGi has built its reputation on engineering leadership, rigorous quality control, and long-term bankability. Their panels consistently lead independent testing for real-world performance - and critically, LONGi as a business has the financial depth to back the warranties they issue.

For New Zealand businesses, this matters in three specific ways:

1.  Degradation rates. LONGi panels degrade more slowly over time, meaning your system produces more energy in year 10, year 15, and year 20 than it would with lower-grade alternatives.

2.  Warranty confidence. A 25-year product warranty only has value if the company issuing it still exists. LONGi's scale and financial strength make their warranty commitments credible — a consideration that has proved decisive for many businesses who bought cheap panels from manufacturers who no longer trade.

3.  Financier and insurer acceptance. Many lenders and insurers in New Zealand now apply tiered terms based on panel brand. Tier 1 manufacturers like LONGi attract more favourable financing — another reason quality pays.

The window for acting before the April price increase is narrow. Businesses that move now can lock in current pricing, avoid the next round of cost rises, and, by choosing quality panels, will protect the long-term return on their investment.

Want to understand your options before April's price changes? Talk to our team about LONGi panel availability and what a quality solar investment looks like for your business.

‍